Political Predictions for 2018

National  Politics:

Defying historical trends and mainstream media polling, the Republican Party will expand its majority in the both U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives.  Congressman Frank Pallone will not become a Committee Chairman.

President Donald Trump’s personal approval ratings will hover between 35-45%.  His job approval rating will exceed 50% nationally and in NJ as the economy continues to grow and as threats from ISIS and North Korea are neutralized. Read the rest of this entry »

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FDU Poll: 36% of NJ voters approve of Obama, 42% will vote for Booker

photo via facebook

The political landscape in New Jersey is ripe for a historic shift this November. But a shift in New Jersey’s representation in Washington is not likely to happen because the New Jersey Republican Party is wholly unprepared for the opportunity.  The nincompoops who lead the NJGOP gave up on the U.S. Senate race in January.  They gave up on picking up seats in the Congressional Delegation in 2012 when the new congressional map was drawn.

According to a Fairleigh Dickinson Univeristy Public Mind Poll released this morning, President Barack Obama’s approval rating among New Jersey registered voters is a dismal 36%.  49%, including 21% of Democrats and 45% of Independents, disapprove of the President’s job performance.  Senator Cory Booker is 8 points below the magic number of 50% that an incumbent needs to be comfortable in a reelection race.  Those are the kind of numbers any opposition party/candidate would pray for 8 weeks before an election.

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MacArthur Defeats Lonegan in CD-3 GOP Primary

Tom MacArthur

Save Jersey has called the contentious Republican primary in the third Congressional District for former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur.

In a contest of carpetbaggers to replace retiring Congressman Jon Runyan in the House of Representatives, MacArthur beat former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan handedly.

With 70% of the votes counted in the Burlington County portion of the district and 63% counted in Ocean County, MacArthur is leading with 63% of the vote.

MacArthur will face off against Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard in November. Belgard trounced Howard Kleinhendler of Lakewood with almost 80% of the vote.  Kleinhendler was the Democratic nominee against Congressman Chris Smith in the 4th district in 2010.

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Lonegan Should Challenge Pallone

Steve Lonegan is not going to win the GOP nomination to replace the retiring Congressman Jon Runyan in New Jersey’s third congressional district.

The party bosses in Ocean and Burlington Counties that comprise the district have settled on endorsing former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur.  Ocean County Republicans with the stones to defy Chairman George Gilmore are lining up behind Toms  River Councilman Maurice Hill, a retired Navy rear admiral.  If Lonegan continues to compete for the nomination in the party conventions, he’s likely to come in third in Ocean and second in Burlington.  Lonegan does not have an organization to compete with the Ocean and Burlington Republican organization should he run a primary race against MacArthur.

Lonegan should stop fighting fellow Republicans in Ocean and Burlington and come north to Monmouth and Middlesex where we need his considerable talent.  If Monmouth GOP Chairman John Bennett and Middlesex GOP Chairman Sam Thompson have not been on the phone pleading with Lonegan to take on ObamaCare author Frank Pallone in the 6th Congressional district, they are missing an opportunity.

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Holt Bolts

Congressman Rush Holt announced this afternoon that h.e will not seek a 9th term in the House of Representatives.   In a statement posted on facebook, the rocket scientist/Jeopardy champion said it was a honor to serve and that there are no hidden motives in his decision to retire. “For a variety of reasons, personal and professional, all of them positive and optimistic, the end of this year seems to me to be the right time to step aside and ask the voters to select the next representative.”

Holt couldn’t debate healthcare with Rhoda Chodosh.  He certainly doesn’t want to debate Dr. Alieta Eck this fall.

Holt was a candidate for U.S. Senate for the Democratic nomination in the Special Election to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg last summer, losing then Newark Mayor Cory Booker, the winner of the nomination and the seat, and Congressman Frank Pallone.

Democrats are lining up to compete for the nomination to replace Holt in the 12 district which includes parts of Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Union Counties and is considered a safe Democratic district by most political experts.

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Murray Sabrin Seeking Support For U.S. Senate Bid

Murray Sabrin, right, with Jay Lassiter, Jeff Gardner, then BlueJersey bloggers, Michael Aron, then of NJN, and MMM publisher Art Gallagher at a November 2010 shooting of Reporters Roundtable.

Murray Sabrin, PhD, the Ramapo College finance professor who challenged Governor Christine Whitman’s 1997 reelection as a Libertarian candidate and sought the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in 2000 and 2008, wants another shot at the seat now occupied by Senator Cory Booker.

The professor has started the process of reaching out to party leaders, previous Republican Senate candidates and county chairmen to gauge and seek their support for the nomination that no mainstream Republican seems to want. Thus far, only little known small businessmen have taken steps to secure the nomination.

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Doherty Will Not Challenge Booker

State Senator Mike Doherty, considered the most conservative member of the NJ Senate, will not attempt to block U.S. Senator Cory Booker from being elected to his own six year term.

A source close to Doherty told MMM that the senator is focused on his appointment to the State Senate Committee investigating the Christie Administration’s involvement in the George Washington Bridge lane closure scandal that has become know as Bridgegate. Doherty was one of three Republicans appointed to the seven member committee by Senate President Sweeney yesterday.  Senators Kevin O’Toole (Essex and Passaic) and Gerald Cardinale (Bergen) are the other Republicans on the investigating committee.  The Democrats are Senators Loretta Weinberg (Bergen), the Chair, Nicholas Scutari(Hudson) Nia Gill (Essex) and Linda Greenstein (Mercer and Middlesex).

“Mike would not have accepted that appointment if he were going to run for U.S. Senate,” this source said, “The party is in disarray and the investigation will be time consuming.”

Steve Lonegan,  Booker’s opponent in the Special Election for U.S. Senate last October,  told The Star Ledger that Doherty should run.   Lonegan has announced his candidacy to the House of Representatives seat being vacated by Congressman Jon Runyan in New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District.

Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick announced this morning that he would not be challenging Booker.

West Orange businessman Brian Goldberg, a political newcomer, is the only announced Republican candidate to U.S. Senate to date.

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Despite GWB scandal, Chris Christie a big draw at Lonegan fundraiser

Despite GWB scandal, Chris Christie a big draw at Lonegan fundraiser (via NJ.com)

MOUNTAIN LAKES — Gov. Chris Christie, facing the biggest scandal of his political career, was still a big draw at a fundraiser tonight to retire the campaign debt of former Republican U.S. Senate candidate Steve Lonegan. About 75 guests paid at least…

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Steve Lonegan on running for Congress in NJ 3

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Lonegan says he’ll run for Congress in South Jersey

Lonegan says he’ll run for Congress in South Jersey (via NJ.com)

TRENTON — Steve Lonegan, the firebrand former Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, is running for a House seat. Lonegan told The Star-Ledger today that he will run for the South Jersey U.S. House of Representatives seat held by U.S. Rep. Jon Runyan…

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