Election Day Predictions 2017

Kim Guadagno will be elected the 56th Governor of New Jersey by less than 2000 votes.

The Associated Press will not call the NJ gubernatorial race until Thursday due to the failure of the vote reporting systems in Essex, Hudson, Camden and Middlesex counties which will prevent the vote from being counted.  CNN and NJ.com will report rumors that the New Jersey election was hacked by the Russians.

Steve Sweeney will survive the millions spent against his reelection by the NJEA.  The teachers’ union will lose considerable influence in Trenton and its membership will revolt against leadership and reform the association.  Guadagno and Sweeney will have a stronger and more effective reform agenda than Christie and Sweeney had during the first Christie’s term. Read the rest of this entry »

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Kean Endorses Thomson For LD 30 Assembly Seat

Sean Kean and Ned Thomson

Assemblyman Sean Kean has endorsed former Wall Township Mayor Edward “Ned” Thomson to be is running mate and colleague in the Assembly.

Thomson is competing to fill the vacancy created by Dave Rible’s resignation from the Assembly upon being sworn in as the Director of the New Jersey Division of Alcohol Beverage Control.   The vacancy will be filled on Monday August 14 at a convention of the LD 30 County Committee to be held at the IBEW Local 400 union hall in Wall.

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Republican Assembly Members Should Vote Against Gas Tax Hike

By Art Gallagher

This column is for my Republican friends in the Assembly, especially those from Monmouth County.

Dave Rible, Rob Clifton, Sean Kean, Monmouth Republican Assembly Members who voted for gas tax in June, and Declan O’Scanlon who didn’t vote, should join Amy Handlin and Ronald Dancer, Republicans who represent parts of Monmouth and voted NO in June, in voting NO on Wednesday or whenever the bill that Governor Christie, Senate President Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Vincent Prieto agreed to on Friday comes up for a vote.

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Insiders: Monmouth Dems will only compete in LD 11 this year

Vin Gopal

Monmouth County Democratic insiders tell MMM that all Monmouth County and Legislative Republicans except Assemblywomen Caroline Casagrande and Mary Pat Angelini will essentially get a free pass to election this year as Democratic Chairman Vin Gopal has been unable to recruit candidates or raise money for the legislative races in legislative districts 12, 13 and 30, or the County Offices of Freeholder and Clerk.

Gopal is expected to leave the candidate recruitment in LDs 12 and 30 to the other counties included in those districts.  The 30th district, currently represented in the Assembly by Republicans Dave Rible and Sean Kean, has 12 towns in Monmouth County and two in Ocean County. Seven of the fourteen towns in the 12th district are on Monmouth County.  The other seven are split between Burlington, Ocean and Middlesex Counties.  The 12th district is represented by Republicans Ron Dancer and Rob Clifton.

Gopal’s trial balloon last December of making a second run for Assembly in the 11th himself( he ran in 2011) went over like the Hindenburg with State Democrats, other County Chairs and Special Interest donors who he had convinced that the money they invested in Monmouth County last year would lead to a pick up of Freeholder seats.

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Monmouth GOP Honors Claire French

Monmouth County Clerk M. Clair French address the Monmouth GOP convention. Chairman Shaun Golden in background. photo by Art Gallagher

An impressive crowd of over 400 Monmouth Republican County Committee members gathered on Saturday morning to nominate their candidates for State Assembly, County Clerk and Freeholder.  The size of the crowd was impressive not only because of the weather but because the results of the convention were a foregone conclusion as there were no challengers to the incumbent Assembly Members, Freeholder or Governor Chris Christie’s nominee for County Clerk.

Free of any competitive tensions, the mood at Colts Neck High School was upbeat, friendly and proud among the grassroots leaders who came out for Chairman Shaun Golden first nominating convention.  Freeholder Deputy Director Serena DiMaso noted both the size and enthusiasm of the crowd. “This crowd is almost as large as last year’s convention when we had a competition for the freeholder nominations,” DiMaso said, “We’re in really great shape and that is a testament to Shaun’s leadership.”

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Jacobson has his eye on Beck’s Senate seat

Dan Jacobson

Former Assemlyman Dan Jacobson, publisher of the triCityNews weekly newspaper and AsburyParkSun hyper-local news website, launched his campaign to return to the legislature last week with his tCN column urging Senate Jennifer Beck to run for governor.

Jacobson served one term in the General Assembly, 1990-1991.  He was swept out of office, along with the Democratic majority in the 1991 election over Governor Florio’s $2 billion tax increase, including sales taxes on toilet paper and food.  In 2011 Jacobson registered as a Republican in order to challenge then Senator Sean Kean for the 11th district Senate nomination in the GOP primary.  But the legislative redistricting commission foiled Jacobson’s plans by moving Kean’s hometown of Wall out of the 11th district into the 30th, and moving Red Bank, Beck’s hometown into the 11th.

Jacobson didn’t want to run against Beck.  They’re friends and agree on most issues. And Beck’s political stardom is one of Jacobson’s major journalistic accomplishments. Just ask him.  Jen Beck never even would have been elected to the Red Bank Borough Council if not for Dan Jacobson pumping her up in the triCityNews.

So Jacobson ran a pax-on-both houses Independent race for Assembly in 2011 to make a point.  2304 voters, 3%, got the point and have long since forgotten it.  Obviously his heart wasn’t in the Assembly race.  He really wants to be in the Senate, but he doesn’t want to run against Beck.

The obvious solution is for Beck to step up and run for governor.  Jacobson rightly argues that the NJ GOP doesn’t have a viable alternative for a post-Christie candidate.   The NJGOP is actually weaker now than it was before Christie was elected in 2009.

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Monmouth Leaders Speak Out On Bridgegate, Christie’s Response.

We’re hearing plenty about Bridgegate and Governor Christie’s response to it from cable news pundits and late night comedians.  MMM thought it would be interesting to hear what our Monmouth County leaders, from both parties, have to say about the controversy and Christie’s response to it at his press conference last Thursday.

Sea Bright Mayor Dina Long, said “No, and I’m angry that some are tossing by name around as if I’m waffling about my endorsement,” when we asked her if she regretted endorsing Christie in light of the Bridgegate scandal. “Bridgegate is terrible, but it does not undue the Sandy recovery.  My endorsement was based on the Sandy recovery.   Let’s wait and see what happens when all the facts come out. Right now it’s a feeding frenzy.”

Senator Jennifer Beck said, “The governor has always straight forward me with, and he was forthcoming in his press conference on Thursday.  I believe him.”

Monmouth County Republican Chairman John Bennett said, “Governor Christie was open and sincere in his press conference.  He said that he will now talk to everyone on his staff himself to get to the bottom of what happened.  This issue may have gotten away from him because he departed from his usual practice of doing it all himself.

“Unfettered and overzealous politicos on Christie’s staff went way over the mark.  The lane closures were a bad, bad idea that never should have happened.”

Monmouth County Democratic Chairman Vin Gopal hasn’t returned our calls since we debunked his malicious and inaccurate attempted character assassination of a Red Bank Republican Council Candidate last October, so we asked his predecessor, Victor Scudiery, and the man who opposed him in the chairman’s race in 2011, Frank LaRocca to comment.

Former Monmouth Democratic Chairman Victor Scudiery said, “I take Chris Christie’s word for it. We’ll have to play it out and see what happens.  Everyone is jumping on the bandwagon, it’s frightening, but we have to wait and see.”

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Monmouth’s “Rising Stars”

Gopal, Doherty and Nelson make Gannett’s ‘Other” List

Brian Nelson. Asbury Park Press Photo

In addition to the list of twelve ‘rising stars’ that Assemblywoman Caroline Casagrande made on Sunday, Gannett published a list of 15 ‘up and comers’ to keep an eye on that includes three Monmouth players.

Democrats Vin Gopal, the 27 year old county chairman and Belmar Mayor Matt Doherty, 39 made the list.  Noticeably absent among Democrats were Marlboro Mayor Jonathon Hornik and Sea Bright Mayor Dina Long.

Gopal, from West Long Branch, ran for Assembly in the 11th District in 2011 before being elected county chairman in 2012.  It remains to be seen if the Monmouth Democratic party will become more competitive under Gopal’s leadership, but there is no question that he is developing a statewide portfolio of influence with his early support of Barbara Buono for the 2013 gubernatorial nomination, his non-stop fundraising schedule for candidates statewide and savvy media presence.  Gopal has ties to both Newark Mayor Cory Booker and Congressman Frank Pallone. How he navigates the anticipated 2014 battle between Booker and Pallone for the U.S. Senate nomination will be fascinating to watch.  MMM predicts that he will be seen as a supporter of the winner and an ally of the loser.

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Gun Control Measures Advance

20 Gun Control Measures Headed to the General Assembly Floor with Muted GOP Opposition

 By Matt Rooney, SaveJersey.com

Twenty (20) new gun control measures made it through the Assembly’s Law & Public Safety Committee this afternoon, Save Jerseyans, all despite the spirited protests of hundreds of Second Amendment advocates who descended on the State House in force.

The most controversial? A-3664, a bill reducing maximum magazine capacity from 15 rounds to 10.

Republican committee members voted against most of the measures.

Assemblyman Sean Kean (R-Monmouth) was the exception; he supported several of the bills and did his best to claim the “common-sense” mantle in his post-hearing statement:

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American Conservative Union Rates New Jersey Legislators

American Conservative Union, the folks who put on the CPAC conventions and who have since 1971 been rating the conservatism of members of Congress have rated the conservatism of New Jersey’s state legislators.

ACU tracked the votes on 11 pieces of legislation for Assembly members and 9 votes in the Senate.  Those who voted the way ACU favored 100% of the time were declared “Defenders of Liberty.”  Those who voted with ACU on 80% or more of the bills earned the designation “ACU Conservative.”

Those legsilators who never voted the way ACU favored, most of the Democrats, earned the designation “True Liberals of the Garden State.”

Some of the results in the Monmouth County delegation, Districts 11, 12, 13 and 30, are surprising.  At least they are to me.

If you asked me to predict who among the Monmouth County delegation would have earned a 100% conservative, “Defender of Liberty” designation I would have guessed only 11th District Assemblywoman Caroline Cassagrande.  I would have guessed wrong.  Cassagrande didn’t even make the 80% “ACU Conservative” cut.  She voted the ACU way 8 of 11 times for a 73% rating.   The 3 votes Cassagrande cast that did not meet ACU approval were for 1) for legislation that requires businesses to post notices that employees have the right to be free from gender inequality, 2) for legislation that would ban treating waste water from fracking and 3) a bill that provided tax credits for electric car charging stations.

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