David Richter should run for congress in CD-12

By Art Gallagher

David Richter

David Richter, the former CEO of Hill International, a global construction management firm, has had a tough start to 2020. Richter, of Princeton, was the front runner for the GOP nomination for Congress in the second district of New Jersey and was poised to end the political career of Congressman Jeff Van Drew.

The impeachment of President Donald J. Trump upended Richter’s self-funded path to Congress.  In a deal brokered by former Governor Chris Christie, according to the NY Times, Van Drew became a Republican and pledged his undying support to the President. Trump, seeing a opportunity much larger than picking up one congressional seat in New Jersey, provided Van Drew with a first class political operation and cleared the path for the freshman congressman to win the GOP nomination for reelection.

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What President Trump understands that Democrats don’t

Adam Geller, President of National Research, addresses Monmouth County Republicans.

As a practitioner of public opinion polling, I’ve studied, poked and analyzed opinions for more than 25 years. I’ve learned and grown to appreciate how fickle and malleable opinions can be. I’ve also come to understand through opinion research, why President Trump is playing a winning hand going into 2020 and why he is better positioned for victory than you might think.

Mr. Trump isn’t playing the opinion game. He is playing on a different field. He is playing on beliefs and values. And his opponents are all too happy to assist him.

Opinions can change, and they often do. Beliefs don’t change. We can change our opinion about a candidate, or a restaurant, or a TV series. But we don’t change our fundamental values. We don’t change our beliefs. Opinions are ephemeral. Beliefs are unwavering.

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Who is paying Curley’s Legal Fees? Are Those Fees Campaign Expenses?

Where is John Curley getting $300,000 to $500,000 to pursue his ridiculous lawsuit?

Angelo Genova, $850 per hour

Disgraced Freeholder John P. Curley’s attorneys, Genova Burns, submitted an invoice for $30,483.92 for their work on Curley’s contempt motion only yesterday in federal court.  Curley sued Monmouth County taxpayers, his fellow freeholders, County Administrator Teri O’Connor and County Counsel Michael Fitzgerald late last year in an effort to keep an investigative report into his alleged conduct of employee harassment, sexual and otherwise, from becoming public.

U.S. District Court Judge Brian R. Martinotti dismissed Curley’s 12 count suit (not covered in the $30,483.92 invoice), but held the freeholders in contempt for revealing parts of the report in their Censure and Reprimand Resolution of Curley in December.  Judge Martinotti ruled the County must pay Curley’s legal fees associated with the contempt motion.  The County has appealed the contempt ruling, arguing that the information in the Censure and Reprimand did not come from the investigative report prepared by retired Acting Supreme Court Justice Mary Catherine Cuff.

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Welle Underperforms Against Keady, Smith Overperforms Unopposed

By Art Gallagher

While much of the media is reporting how poorly U.S. Senator Bob Menendez performed in the  Democrat primary yesterday, I couldn’t miss how poorly Josh Welle, address none of your business, performed against former Asbury Park Councilman Jim Keady, Spring Lake, in the 4th congressional district primary.

With all three county party lines, more money and the endorsement of his former landlord, State Senator and honorary volunteer firefighter Vin Gopal, Welle only got 57% of the vote against Keady’s 43%.

Congressman Chris Smith, Hamilton, overperformed expectations, especially given that he was unopposed in the CD-4 Republican primary.

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“Weight” before you take the latest Monmouth University poll too seriously

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray released a poll yesterday that, he says, indicates New Jersey’s Congressional Republicans are “facing hurricane force winds” and that all five New Jersey Republicans in the House of Representatives have a good chance of losing this year.

“This is pretty astounding. Not only are New Jersey Democrats doing better on the generic House ballot statewide, but the shift is coming almost entirely from districts currently held by the GOP. If these results hold, we could be down to just one or two — or maybe even zero — Republican members in the state congressional delegation after November.”

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Will the Monmouth Dems Take Curley?

By Art Gallagher

Regardless of the outcome of Freeholder John Curley’s federal lawsuit to prevent the Monmouth County Board of Chosen Freeholders from Censuring him and to seal the investigative report into complaints of his harassment of County employees that he obviously believes will destroy his reputation, it is hard to imagine a scenario where Curley is nominated for reelection by the Monmouth GOP.

Curley’s term is up next year.  The Republican and Democrat Party nominees for the primary will be chosen by early April.

In his lawsuit, Curley alleges that the investigation and proposed censure is a “political hatchet job” by Freeholder Serena DiMaso.  The current mess does nothing for DiMaso politically.  Curley and DiMaso were successful running mates in 2012.  DiMaso is leaving the Board in January when she will be sworn into the State Assembly.  Nothing about this situation benefits DiMaso politically. Read the rest of this entry »

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Gopal Beating Beck Was No Upset. It Was Gerrymandering and Camden Colonialism

By Tommy DeSeno

Election night we listened to pundit after pundit (some admitting they know little about the 11^th District) proclaim Vin Gopal’s victory over Senator Jen Beck was an “upset.”  Nothing could be further from the truth.  Every indicia of prognostication said Vin Gopal was the favorite, and it starts with the previous census.

I’ve lamented for some time that voting in “districted elections” is like not voting at all.  After each census, 10 political big shots, 5 from each party, meet in a hotel room and draw crazy lines that allow them to divvy up the state between the two parties.  Democrats having an advantage in this state, their “map” wins, by an 11^th man tiebreaker.  This is followed by us sheep doing our civic duty and voting even though the pols already stacked the demographic deck.  The winning party acts like it was political prowess that won them the election, when in fact the day was won in the hotel room where the map is drawn every 10 years.  This system is an inhibitor of democracy. Read the rest of this entry »

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40,003 reasons Vin Gopal beat Jennifer Beck

Senator-elect Vin Gopal and Tinton Falls Mayor Gerald Turning. photo via facebook, posted Oct 9

By Art Gallagher

Jennifer Beck had an internal poll showing her leading Vin Gopal by 17% in September.  Gopal had a poll showing him losing to Beck by 6% in mid October. Another Gopal poll showed him winning by 1% last week.  Beck said last week that she thought it was a 3% race. So how did Gopal pull off a 7% victory on Tuesday night?

Gopal’s campaign knocked on 40,000 doors in Asbury Park, Eatontown, Long Branch, Ocean Township and Tinton Falls, according to a veteran Democrat operative who participated in the effort.

The Senator-elect had a fresh and energetic army of volunteers and paid canvassers join his committed troops in the field on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Beck’s campaign closed with a Hail Mary pass and a fire drill. Read the rest of this entry »

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Christie’s off to Wall with education fairness plan

photo via Governor’s office

By Art Gallagher

Governor Chris Christie is back on the Town Hall circuit…now he is calling them forums…as he meets New Jersey voters on Tuesday in Wall Township to promote the school funding formula that he announced last week.

The “Fairness Formula Forum” will take place in the Wall branch of the Monmouth County Library, 2700 Allaire Rd., Tuesday afternoon at 3:30 p.m.  The doors open at 2:15 p.m and seating his first come first served.  RSVPs are encouraged for planning purposes to  FairnessForum.Wall@NJ.Gov.

Christie is saying that he wants a referendum in 2017 to amend the State Constitution so that State education funding is distributed equally to all school age children throughout the New Jersey.  He says that the State would contribute $6,500 per student.  Currently roughly 75% of State funding goes to 31 school districts, formerly referred to Abbott districts for the landmark Abbott vs Burke NJ Supreme Court decision that mandated that the State subsidize poor and urban districts.

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Road to the White House, 2016: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio

By Alan J. Steinberg

I have had a rather poor prediction record in this year’s presidential primaries, as I vastly underrated Donald Trump’s appeal.  I remain intrepid, however, so the following is my initial Electoral College 2016 projection.

In order to be elected president, a candidate must win states giving him or her a total of at least 270 electoral votes.  I believe that Donald Trump will carry all the states won by Mitt Romney in 2012, giving him a base of 206 electoral votes.

I classify seven of the states won by Barack Obama in 2012 as swing states in 2016.  These states are the three double digit electoral vote states of Florida (29 electoral votes), Ohio (18), and Pennsylvania (20), and the four single digit electoral vote states of New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6), Colorado (9), and Nevada (6), for a total of 92 electoral votes.  Hillary Clinton is likely to carry all the other states won by Obama in 2012, giving her a base of 240 electoral votes.

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