Never Underestimate Chris Christie

By Art Gallagher

Who else but Chris Christie could pull off an October surprise in June?

When the Governor’s announcement of a Special U.S. Senate election in October prompted knee-jerk angry responses from national Republicans, New Jersey Democrats and New Jersey wingnuts, I figured he must be onto something good.

As my young friend, New Jersey Rising Star Matt Rooney pointed out this morning, there was a better than even risk that the NJ Supreme Court would side with Trenton Democrats and overrule Christie if he appointed a temporary Senator to serve until November of 2014.  The NJ Supremes could then overreach their authority and dictate that the special election be held in November of this year.

I once heard an honest Judge congratulate litigants for settling their differences, for keeping their destinies in their own hands, rather than turn their fates over to unpredictable third parties.  By choosing the route to fill the late Senator Frank Lautenberg’s seat that he did, Christie limited the possibility that his gubernatorial power would be taken over by the Court.

The conventional punditry seems to assume that whichever Republican Christie chooses to temporally fill the seat until the special election will inevitably lose to Newark Mayor Cory Booker in October.  I’m not convinced that is the case.

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Understanding October Logic

Faced with Three Bad Options, Christie’s U.S. Senate Strategy Might Be the Least Terrible

By Matt Rooney, SaveJersey.com

You’ve already heard from plenty of angry conservatives/Republicans who think Governor Christie’s uber-controversial U.S. Senate vacancy timeline is tantamount to high treason. Our own Irwin Fletcher is on record believing it’s a huge mistake.

Allow me to play devil’s advocate for a moment without risking a verbal stoning from a digital lynch mob?

When Frank Lautenberg left this earth, Save Jerseyans, Chris Christie was faced with three legal options:

(1) Hold a special U.S. Senate election coinciding with this November’s general election;

(2) Wait until November 2014 for a vote; or

(3) Pick a date between now and November for a separate special election.

Let’s hypothesize how each scenario would likely pan out for the GOP…

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It’s Over

With over 62% of the voting districts in LD 13 reporting, State Senator Joe Kyrillos has won the GOP nomination for another term in Trenton’s upper chamber, according to MoreMonmouthMusings’ statistical expert team.

Assembly Members Amy Handlin and Declan O’Scanlon have also been renominated.

Sheriff Shaun Golden and Freeholders Tom Arnone and Serena DiMaso have been renominated with over 80% of the vote with 80% of the districts reporting in the county.

Monmouth County GOP Chairman John Bennett, celebrating with about 250 supporters at the Lincroft Inn in Middletown has declared victory of the LD 13 legislators and counter incumbents.

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Christie’s Announcement Of U.S. Senate Special Election

Transcript:

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The Dirty Trick Call

MMM has obtained a copy the 4am robo call that fraudulently announced it was made on behalf on Joe Kyrillos, Amy Handlin and Declan O’Scanlon and reminding the listener that they had “another four hours to vote.

The call had no paid for disclosure, as calls from the Monmouth GOP, whose number was used on the caller ID, would have.

Listen to the call yourself by clicking here.

We called the Bellew for Senate campaign for comment.  No one answered.  This is a copy of the recorded message that answers the Bellew for State Senate phone.  Click here to listen to the Bellew for Senate recorded phone greeting.

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What if Christie picks…..

Could John Bennett be heading back to Trenton?

…Senator Joe Kyillos?

By virtue of his long term friendship with Governor Christie and his campaign for U.S. Senate last year, State Senator Joe Kyrillos is on every Christie mind reader’s short list of possible U.S. Senators to replace the late Frank Lautenberg.

Assuming Kyrillos defeats Leigh-Ann Bellew in the primary today, his move to the U.S. Senate would create a vacancy for the nomination for State Senate in LD 13.  If either Assemblywoman Amy Handlin or Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon move up to the Senate slot, as would be expected, there will be an Assembly nomination vacancy.

Neither Handlin nor O’Scanlon will say if they want the State Senate seat, which probably means they both want it. Even so, I would expect that they would work that out amongst themselves rather than have a convention fight.

A nominating convention for the resulting Assembly vacancy would bring out a wealth of Republican talent.

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Seemingly conflicting laws create uncertainty over when Lautenberg’s replacement will have to face the voters

If Governor Chris Christie appoints someone to fill the U.S. Senate vacancy caused by Senator Frank Lautenberg’s death, there will either be a special election this year for the remainder of the term, or next November, depending on who’s interpretation of seemingly conflicting paragraphs in Title 19.

Christie has the power to appoint a replacement, but is not required to do so. He very likely will.

The Office of Legislative Services has issued an opinion stating that the Governor can appoint a replacement who will serve until November of 2014.  The winner of the November 2014 election would serve the remaining two months of the term and a full term to start in January of 2015.

Christie could also call a special general election to fill the remainder of the term, which would be proceeded by a special primary election.

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SUPER MEGA ROADSIDE RALLY

The Bayshore Tea Party Group’s SUPER MEGA ROADSIDE RALLY inspired our friend Charles Measley to hold one of his own.

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Getting out the vote!

Freeholder Director Tom Arnone and Assemblyman Dave Rible in Wall Township on Saturday afternoon.

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Getting out the vote?

The Bayshore Tea Party Group had what they promoted as a SUPER MEGA ROADSIDE RALLY FOR TEA PARTY CANDIDATES this morning in Middletown.

Less than 10 people showed up.

Here, the group’s co-founder Barbara Gonzalez appears to be alone waving the Gadsden flag.

While Barbara was waving the flag on Route 35, her husband Frank was busy in the median installing their unreadable Column 3 signs in front of their competitor’s signs.

It is a good thing that the signs are unreadable.  One of BTPG’s  candidate’s name is misspelled.

Click on the photos for a larger view.

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