Lonegan Fires Shaftan

GOP nominee Steve Lonegan for U.S. Senate fired his long time strategist and pollster, Rick Shaftan, tonight over comments Shaftan made to Talking Points Memo.

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Deplorable Conduct From The Lonegan Campaign

Rick Shaftan

UPDATE:  LONEGAN FIRES SHAFTAN

GOP nominee for U.S. Senate Steve Lonegan’s chief strategist, pollster and spokesman, Rick Shaftan gave a profanity laced interview to Talking Points Memo this afternoon wherein he suggested that New Jersey voters would elect Lonegan to the Senate next Wednesday over Newark Mayor Cory Booker because of Booker’s “odd” way of relating to LynsieLee, the Portland, Oregon stripper with whom Booker interacts on twitter.

Shaftan implied that Booker is gay because he doesn’t relate to LyniseLee like a drunken frat boy might, with graphic descriptions of what he would like to do to her breasts.  And he thinks that is why New Jersey will elect Lonegan.

In a disingenuous comment to The Star Ledger,  Lonegan’s press contact, Will Gattenby , said Shaftan was not speaking for the campaign, yet attacked the TMP reporter published Shaftan’s comments.

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Lt. Governor Debate Tonight

The only debate between Lieutenant  Governor Kim Guadagno and her Democratic opponent, labor leader Milly Silva will take place this evening at 7PM.

News12 will broadcast and livestream the hour long debate.

Watch the debate live here.

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Cary Booker, father of Newark Mayor Cory Booker, dead at 76

Cary Booker, father of Newark Mayor Cory Booker, dead at 76 (via NJ.com)

NEWARK — Cary Booker, the father of Newark Mayor Cory Booker, died Thursday after a long bout with Parkinson’s disease, the mayor’s Senate campaign said. He was 76. Cary Booker recently suffered a stroke and died in Las Vegas, where he was living…

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Lonegan to House Republicans: Wait For My Victory, Obama Will Fold

GOP nominee for U.S. Senate Steve Lonegan today urged Republicans in the House of Representatives not to give into President Barack Obama’s demands for re-opening the government and raising the federal debt ceiling, declaring, “When I win, Obama will fold.”

“Republicans need to hold firm because seven days from today when Bob Menendez escorts me down the Senate aisle for my swearing in, the message about what our party should do will be clear for all,” Lonegan maintained.

“I have come as far as I have in this campaign by ignoring the advice from all the pollsters and consultants who have told me to change what I think and change who I am,” Lonegan added. “New Jerseyans are looking for a leader who fights for working taxpayers, not a Hollywood wannabe like Cory Booker who will rubber stamp the President’s far-left wing agenda.”

Lonegan says his internal polling shows a neck-and-neck race in the U.S. Senate contest and that all the momentum is in his favor. “My victory in this election on Wednesday will send a message to Barack Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi that the American people want an end to Obamacare and the rest of the President’s radical agenda.”

The former three-term Bogota mayor called on Republicans to stop listening to the same consultants and pollsters who blew the 2012 election and who are telling the GOP to fold and instead stand firm for seven more days.

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What were they thinking?

Ben Dworkin, Director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics, introduces U.S. Senate candidate Steve Lonegan. September 24, 2013

I don’t think Steve Lonegan and Rick Shaftan are stupid.

I don’t think they believed their own bs over the years that a “true conservative” could win a statewide election in New Jersey, if only given a chance.

Surprisingly to many, Lonegan’s campaign since August was working.  He substantially narrowed the gap between himself and Cory Booker.  He unquestionably weakened the electorate’s perception of Booker.  Lonegan never moderated his message, but he significantly moderated his delivery and demeanor.  He was not a scary angry conservative.

The Lonegan I witnessed at Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics last month was not a flame thrower.  He was an honest and concerned adult sharing his wisdom with college students.

I never got to the point where I thought Lonegan would win next week.  I did think that if he got into single digits, he would be the front runner for a rematch with Booker in 2014.   I thought, if he kept doing what he was doing, in the style he was doing it, his best shot at beating Booker was in November of 2014.

I don’t think that anymore.  With tonight’s debate performance, combined with scheduled appearances with Sarah Palin and Mark Levin this weekend, I think Lonegan and Shaftan concluded they aren’t going to win, so they might as well have fun for the last week of Lonegan’s political career.

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Booker wins on style

Cory Booker came to the second and final Senatorial debate prepared to portray Steve Lonegan as a Tea Party extremist, and Lonegan cooperated.

Lonegan came prepared with facts and punchlines.  Booker turned nearly every question into an opportunity to portray himself as a compromiser who will go to Washington to get things done and Lonegan as an extremist.

Early on in this campaign, Lonegan acknowledged he “lacked a filter” between what he really thinks and what he says.  He seems to have developed a filter over the last several weeks, but he left it at home tonight.

Lonegan’s hardest punchlines are likely to be used against him over the the final week of the campaign.  “You might not be able to swim in that river, but its probably because of all the bodies in it from shooting victims” and “you’ll abort a baby in its 8th month of delivery,” will very likely be used relentlessly by the Booker campaign and they ramp up their Get Out The Vote machine in the coming week.

With more substantive answers, Lonegan probably won on debating points.  But debating points don’t win elections. Both candidates were on message and their message was the same…Steve Lonegan is an antagonistic extremist.  At least he was tonight.

If the Lonegan/Shaftan strategy was to gin up their base, I’m sure it worked.  But it probably turned off moderate voters who were leaning towards coming out for Lonegan.  Booker’s money will make sure Lonegan rhetoric gins up his base in the coming week.

Sarah Palin and Mark Levin are coming to New Jersey to campaign for Lonegan at a Tea Party event in New Egypt on Saturday.  If you’re willing to bet on that as a winning strategy for a New Jersey election, you’re probably also willing to bet that the 0-5 Giants will have home field advantage at the Super Bowl in February.

If I were betting on the next Wednesday’s election, I’d take Booker and give 18 points.

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Booker-Lonegan, Round 2

The second and final debate between Newark Mayor Steve Lonegan and former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, the major party candidates to complete the term of the late U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg, will take place this evening at 7PM.

The debate will be broadcast on NBC-TV, channel 4 in the New York market, channel 10 in the Philadelphia market, and livestreamed at nbcphiladelphia.com

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Toms River Man Wanted For Sandy Fraud

Brian Nogiewich. Photo via Monmouth Co Prosecutors Office

Judge Joseph W. Oxley issued an arrest warrant for Brian Nogiewich, 54, of Toms River, today when Nogiewich failed to surrender to the Monmouth County Super Storm Sandy Fraud Task Force.

Nogiewich is charged with Theft for failing to deliver natural gas powered electrical generators to customers who paid him for them in the wake of Super Storm Sandy, according to a statement from Acting Monmouth County Prosecutor Christopher J. Gramiccioni.

The joint investigation by members of the Monmouth County Superstorm Sandy Fraud Task Force, including the FBI, revealed that Nogiewich accepted payments from two Monmouth County residents in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy, but failed to either deliver the natural gas-powered generators or refund his customers’ money. One victim paid Nogiewich a deposit of just under $3,000, while the second victim paid him more than $4,700 for the power plant. Neither victim has received a generator or a refund.

The investigation further revealed an application by Nogiewich to the New Jersey Division of Consumer Affairs for a Home Improvement Contractor Registration Number contained false information.

Nogiewich is charged with two counts of third degree Theft by Deception and one count of fourth degree Failure to Register with Division of Consumer Affairs.

Nogiewich has continued to evade authorities since failing to surrender after telling investigators he was in the State of Delaware and would return to New Jersey.  Additional information has led investigators to believe he may also be in Upstate New York.

Anyone with information about the whereabouts of Nogiewich is urged to call Detective Elethia Baldwin, of this Office at 732-431-7160 ext. 6349 or toll-free at 1-800-533-7443.

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Quinnipiac Poll: Women will put Booker of the top

Lonegan camp says its a 3 point race

GOP nominee for U.S. Senate Steve Lonegan is leading Democratic nominee Cory Booker among Independent voters, 50%-44%, and Republicans, 87%-10%, but women in all demographics are breaking strongly for Booker, 62%-31%, giving the Newark mayor an overall 12 point lead, 53%-41%, in the race to be New Jersey’s next U.S. Senator, according to a Quinnipiac poll of likely released this morning.

Booker’s lead is unchanged since a September 24 Quinnipiac poll that energized Lonegan supporters.  The 12 point lead in September revealed the race to be a lot closer the 30%+ margins most were expecting for Booker.

The poll of 899 likely voters was conducted between October 5 and 7.  If the Senatorial debate between the candidates moved the needle either way, it is not likely to be reflected in these numbers. The debate was held on the fourth, but not broadcast until the 6th.

There is some indication that Quinnipiac may be over weighting Democrats or under weighting Independents in their turnout assumptions. The poll indicates that NJ voters favor ObamaCare by a 51%-44% margin.  Yet Independents oppose ObamaCare by 56%-38%.  Democrats support ObamaCare, 92%-4%. Republicans oppose it 87%-8%. Lonegan has been campaigning against ObamaCare as strongly as he has been attacking Booker’s record in Newark.

In a general election, Independents are usually the largest percentage of voters.  With Independents breaking for Lonegan and against ObamaCare, it is surprising that Democratic voters are predicted to carry the day.  But nobody knows who will turnout for a Special Election on the third Wednesday in October.

Quinnipiac’s assumptions could be on the money.  Democratic turnout in the August 13 primary was higher than expected by most.

The Lonegan campaign continues to believe the race is within three points.  Strategist/pollster Rich Shaftan, who celebrated the Quinnipiac poll in September, posted the following critiques on facebook this morning:

Q-Poll is not a registered voter poll. It is a random digit dial survey where the results are weighted to the 2012 turnout model. They are weighting the numbers because they have too many Republicans completing the surveys and not enough Democrats. This the opposite of what happened in 2012, leading people to claim “the polls” were “skewed.” Pollsters should look at the raw data and not weight it for what they believe turnout will be.

Just spoke to Douglas Schwartz at the Quinnipiac Poll.  He admitted to me they upweight African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians to match the 18+ Census Data.  If he released the unweighted raw data it would show a 3 point race.  And that doesn’t account for their sample being drawn from random phone numbers, instead of registered voters or better yet, registered voters who have voted in two of four general elections.

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